FROM OUR SOUTH-EAST ASIA CORRESPONDENT

REDUNDANT Kremlinologists should consider a move to Jakarta. Indonesia's politics presents a smooth, indeed monotonous, surface. Debate is limited and the president is always reelected by the unanimous vote of a carefully controlled parliament. Yet those observers who combine a taste for rumour with a willingness to look for clues are convinced that there is furious activity beneath the surface.

On March 10th, President Suharto was unanimously returned for another five years in office. This is the sixth consecutive time Mr Suharto has been elected in this fashion. Since he has control, in effect, over the appointment of 60% of the People's Consultative Assembly, which chooses the president, his re-election was hardly a surprise. After a polite display of reluctance, Mr Suharto duly accepted the honour that had been thrust upon him.

But the president is now 71 and the inevitable beginnings of a succession struggle can be discerned. The post of vice-president — hitherto regarded as unimportant — has suddenly assumed greater significance. The new number-two, elected on March 11th, is Try Sutrisno, who has just retired as head of the Indonesian armed forces. Few people regard Mr Sutrisno as a towering intellect, or even a particularly forceful politician, which may suggest that he is fated never to rise to the top. Sceptics, noting the pervasive extent of the president's power, quote an old proverb: „Nothing grows under the banyan tree.“

But perhaps that is too damning about the vice-president. After all, Try — as the vice-president is known to his compatriots — is acceptable to every leading interest group, an essential qualification in consensus-loving Indonesia.

He is a Muslim in a country that is 88% Muslim (and increasingly conscious of the fact). He is from Java, the dominant island in the Indonesian archipelago. He is identified neither with the free-market technocrats nor with the economic nationalists, the two factions now battling for control of economic policy. And, unlike the outgoing vice-president, Sudharmono, he is entirely acceptable to the armed forces. Mr Sutrisno's appointment, therefore, may help to end speculation about a rift between the president and the armed forces.

It will not, however, delight Indonesia's critics. Mr Sutrisno is best known overseas for reading to the Indonesian army's massacre of about 100 mourners in East Timor in November 1991 with the comment, „It is necessary 10 fire on those who do not follow the official line. ABRI [the acronym for Indonesia's armed forces] is determined to eliminate whoever disturbs stability.“ Mr Suharto took a different approach — in public at least — and sacked two generals deemed responsible for the killings.

That, however, may just have been a sop to international opinion (and a rebuke to the army for letting the incident happen in the first place). Those Indonesians who hope that greater prosperity and the passing of the Suharto period will lead to some political liberalisation are likely to be disappointed. Indonesia has an increasingly powerful and outward-looking economy, but it is a diverse and potentially unstable country, whose leaders remain obsessed by security, especially where it relates to preserving national unity.

Indeed, rather than liberalisation, the end of the Suharto era may herald a reassertion of military authority. Mr Suharto emerged from the army and is still commander-in-chief of ABRi, but his rule.has become increasingly personalised. The diversion of lucrative businesses from the armed forces to the president's friends and family has been one source of military discontent.

Some who doubt that Mr Sutrisno will ever get the top job think that Mr Suharto is grooming an heir who would neatly combine dynastic and military virtues. General Wismoyo Arismunandar is both the president's brother-in-law and the deputy head of the army. A logical career path for the general would put him at the head of ABRI in five years' time, just as Mr Suharto's latest term of office runs out. At the age of 76, and with a relation to take over (and perhaps safeguard the business interests of his children), Mr Suharto might finally feel inclined to step aside.

Meanwhile, judging by the consultative assembly's deliberations this week, the pressures for a more open political system are still weak. A few students demonstrated outside parliament on the eve of the election, calling for Mr Suharto to step down. They were quickly ushered away. The smallest party in the assembly, the Indonesian Democratic Party, managed to get a brief discussion of its calls for a more open electoral system. None of the other parties agreed that the electoral system — which is heavily slanted towards the ruling party, Golkar — needs to be changed, and the Democrats did not force the matter to a vote. In Indonesia, officially at least, voting is regarded as evidence of a breakdown in consensus and is avoided whenever possible. One cabinet minister commented that the absence of votes at the meeting demonstrated the maturity of Indonesian democracy.

But, while the politicians and soldiers settle down for five years of discreet manoeuvring, businessmen, economists and foreign aid donors have their eyes on a much more pressing deadline: the formation of a new cabinet. They will be looking to see if the power of the technocrats — a group of western-trained economists who have been crucial to Indonesia's economic success — is weakened in the reshuffle.

The technocrats have pursued a low-technology, export-oriented economy, exploiting the country's low labour costs. Their chief ideological opponent is B.J. Habibie, an ambitious enthusiast for a high-technology approach — which is likely to require large subsidies and protection against imports. The betting is that one of the leading technocrats, Radius Prawiro, who is now the chief economics minister, will retire; Adrianus Mooy, the governor of the central bank, may also go. If their replacements are associated with Mr Habibie, then the Kremlinologists may decide that Indonesia's economic policy is stuffing rather more vigorously than its political one. <>
 
 

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