Who is going to be Indonesia's next vice-president?

By Suhaini Aznam in Jakarta

With less than two weeks to go before Indonesians walk into polling boths to elect the country's president the suspense is mounting. It is not about who will be president — President Suharto is the only candidate — but about who will be his running mate.

The president has not expressed his wish, but one front runner has emerged for the vice-presidential position which will be determined by the 1,000 member People's Consultative Assembly (MPR). It looks as if Suharto's deputy and possible successor will be departing armed forces chief Gen. Try Sutrisno. Having secured the support of three of the five groups in the MPR, Sutrisno would normally be considered a shoo-in. And, to be sure, he is well placed. But in Jakarta, nothing can be taken for granted. Even with the two remaining groups in the MP'R apparently ready to support him, Sutrisno still may not become Indonesia's sixth vice-president.

That is because Suharto himself will make the final decision. Past political practice has always given the president the right to reject vice-presidential nominees on the basis of „compatibility.“ While Sutrisno — Suharto's adjutant from 1974-78 — is a known and loyal quantity, the president has surprised the political world by making unexpected decisions before. He may do so again. One reason is that his choice this time undoubtedly will be his most important; whomever he selects as vice-president has the best possibility of succeeding him at the end of his sixth — and, most likely, final — five-year term. Suharto is running unopposed.

Sutrisno's front-runner status is far from certain though because at least one of the groups — if not all three — took the unusual step of nominating him without first consulting the president. If the armed forces (Abri), which announced its support for Sutrisno on 12 February, was one of them that would signal an important bid by the military to assert its independence.

Abri's stakes in the 11 March election for vice-president are high. If it fails to get Sutrisno elected, it is worried that the presidency could fall into civilian hands by 1998. But army leaders are likely to have their hands full. Well-placed sources say, Suharto is incensed at having been pushed into a corner by the early nominations. That is especially true given one of them was from the military of which he is supreme commander.

The first of Sutrisno's three nominations came in January from the small Indonesian Democratic Party (PDI), which openly declared that it had not consulted Suharto over its choice. But Abri's nomination — followed two days later by that of the Muslim United Development Party — was seen as more important. While Suharto could still refuse Sutrisno, or perhaps even persuade him to stand down, „the price to pay,“ say's Jusuf Wanandi of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies,“ would be too high.“ Abri's move, he says, has „put the onus on the president.“

Others agree. „Suharto realises the danger of alienating the military,“ says a political scientist.“ He does not want to create a Sukarno vs military situation, especially in his last term. He wants lo leave without controversy, from a position of strength.“

Diplomats offer an additional explanation. Their early thinking is that Abri's nomination was designed to pressure the ruling Golkar party into supporting Sutrisno as well. If true, that reasoning was sound. Three days after the armed force's nomination, Golkar chairman Wahono said his party's nominee,“ would be the same as Abri's.“ Given Wahono's undisputed loyalty to Suharto and his position as speaker of the MPR, observers concluded that Sutrisno's candidacy had received Suharto's blessing.

But in addition to pressuring Golkar, Abri may also have had other motives behind its early announcement. In 1988, the military wanted a candidate other than current Vice-President Sudharmono. But before Abri could name its choice, Suharto made his decision and everyone fell into line. This time, Abri officials moved first.

Sutrisno, 57, announced his retirement from the armed forces on 17 February, after having three times been extended past the customary retirement age of 55. Born in Surabaya, he is Javanese, a Muslim and acceptable to all groups in parliament.

But the general's star dipped briefly in November 1991, when critics blamed him for failing to anticipate the events that led to the army's shooting of separatist demonstrators in East Timor. Although he has since recovered lost ground, he was ultimately held responsible for that disaster.

One aspirant to the vice-presidency who no longer seems to be in the running is Minister of Research and Technology B.J. Habibie. Indonesian analysts agree that Habibie, a virtual Suharto protege, would have been Suharto's likely first choice. But in an outspoken interview last October in the weekly magazine Tempo, Habibie may have jumped the gun when he implied that his closeness to Suharto gave him a better than average chance to become vice-president. The statement did not play well in Jakarta where humility is a political necessity. On 16 February, Habibie withdrew from consideration when he told reporters that he would remain in his current portfolio.

But with Habibie's withdrawal and Sutrisno's nomination, all eyes shifted to incumbent Vice-president Sudharmono. Abri has been uneasy with Sudharmono despite his own Abri origins. Part of the reason for that apprehension is his stint as Golkar chairman from 1983-88 during which he restructured the party and built his own power base. Worried that the move was an attempt to cut off their influence, Abri officials have since set about undoing the vice-president's network.

More than anything, however, this year's lobbying and counter-lobbying for who becomes the vice-president is a competition about political power. In thc end, the eleventh-hour manoeuvring is essentially a direct test of Suharto's strength after 25 years in office. Ultimately, says Oka Mahendran, a senior Golkar MP, „everything goes back to ISuharto].“ <>
 
 

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